VTMBH Article: Body
With midterm congressional elections only weeks away, Republican leaders continue to hope that President George W. Bushs strong pro-Israel positions and leadership in the war on terror will entice Jewish voters to the GOP side of the aisle. But a new Gallup Poll splashes cold water on those hopes. According to the survey, which examines party identification by religion, there was little meaningful change in the ways in which Americans of any religious leaning identified their basic political orientation after September 11th.
That includes Jewish voters, whose identification with the Republican Party remains below 20 percent. Those numbers come only months after a surge of news stories describing an impending shift to the GOP in response to Bushs strong support for Israels campaign against suicide bombers and the growing pro-Israel zeal of congressional Republicans. Those reports also took note of the relative silence on Israel by congressional Democrats.
In a series of polls combined because individual surveys do not include enough Jewish respondents to be statistically reliable50 percent of Jews surveyed claim Democratic affiliation, about one-third call themselves independents and only 17 percent identify as Republicans.
That stands in sharp contrast to Protestants, with 39 percent identifying as Republicans and 32 percent as Democrats.
The party identification of Jews appears to be remarkably stable, according to the Gallup report. An analysis of over 30,000 Gallup Poll interviews conducted from 1992 to 2001 shows almost exactly the same distribution of party identification among the Jewish population, as is the case in the most recent year and a half. The Jewish sample consisted of 408 respondents.
Marshall Wittman, a senior fellow with the conservative Hudson Institute, said the data reflect what GOP leaders have known for a long time: Despite the media hype about a big shift, Jewish voters continue to cling to old voting patterns.
Im not surprised by the Republican numbers, he said. Especially at the congressional level, the Jewish community is still a very tough nut to crack for the Republican Party. You hear many more positive things about Bush [among Jews], but that is unlikely to translate into votes for other Republicans.
In data collected through 2001, an overwhelming majority of Jews73 percentdescribed themselves as moderate or liberal, only 23 percent as conservative. Forty-two percent of Protestants and 34 percent of Catholics claimed the conservative label.
Bushs job approval ratings among Jewish voters surged after September 11th, but they remained significantly below the levels of Catholics and Protestants.
According to the most recent numbers, 66 percent of Jews surveyed approve of Bushs handling of his job, compared to 81 percent of Protestants and 82 percent of Catholics.
The poll, Wittman said, included one hopeful sign for the GOP: the surprisingly high number of Jews who identify themselves as independents.
Jews have been overwhelmingly Democratic in identification over the years, he said. Any weakening of that identification has to be good for the Republicans. If you pushed most of these independents, they would still probably vote Democratic. Still, its a departure from the New Deal generation.
A top political scientist agreed.
The history of American party identification is that when groups are shifting from one party to another, they dont do it in one fell swoop, said Benjamin Ginsberg, a professor at Johns Hopkins University. Generally they do it through third party or independent phases.
Republican politicians who have mastered the argot of the Jewish community and who have unimpeachable pro-Israel credentials may be able to tap that independent bloc, he said, citing the example of former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.
Still, any change is likely to be slow and incremental. There wont be any stampedes, Ginsberg said.
Jewish Democrats were crowing about the survey.
In a statement, the National Jewish Democratic Council said the Gallup analysis is particularly significant because of a recent Hillel survey of Jewish college freshmen showing that only 9.5 percent of those surveyed consider themselves conservative or far right.
Viewed together, these studies take on the myths that American Jewish adults are moving towards the right, and that Jewish college students are doing likewise, said NJDC director Ira Forman.
Matthew Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition, downplayed the significance of the Gallup numbers.
We never expected a realignment of [voter] registration, he said. What is clear over the last few election cycles is a realignment of votes. There is undisputable evidence that more and more Jews are voting for Republican candidates across the board.
Brooks also said that other surveys show that up to 48 percent of Jews would consider voting for Bush in 2004, which we see as the most encouraging aspect.
That includes Jewish voters, whose identification with the Republican Party remains below 20 percent. Those numbers come only months after a surge of news stories describing an impending shift to the GOP in response to Bushs strong support for Israels campaign against suicide bombers and the growing pro-Israel zeal of congressional Republicans. Those reports also took note of the relative silence on Israel by congressional Democrats.
In a series of polls combined because individual surveys do not include enough Jewish respondents to be statistically reliable50 percent of Jews surveyed claim Democratic affiliation, about one-third call themselves independents and only 17 percent identify as Republicans.
That stands in sharp contrast to Protestants, with 39 percent identifying as Republicans and 32 percent as Democrats.
The party identification of Jews appears to be remarkably stable, according to the Gallup report. An analysis of over 30,000 Gallup Poll interviews conducted from 1992 to 2001 shows almost exactly the same distribution of party identification among the Jewish population, as is the case in the most recent year and a half. The Jewish sample consisted of 408 respondents.
Marshall Wittman, a senior fellow with the conservative Hudson Institute, said the data reflect what GOP leaders have known for a long time: Despite the media hype about a big shift, Jewish voters continue to cling to old voting patterns.
Im not surprised by the Republican numbers, he said. Especially at the congressional level, the Jewish community is still a very tough nut to crack for the Republican Party. You hear many more positive things about Bush [among Jews], but that is unlikely to translate into votes for other Republicans.
In data collected through 2001, an overwhelming majority of Jews73 percentdescribed themselves as moderate or liberal, only 23 percent as conservative. Forty-two percent of Protestants and 34 percent of Catholics claimed the conservative label.
Bushs job approval ratings among Jewish voters surged after September 11th, but they remained significantly below the levels of Catholics and Protestants.
According to the most recent numbers, 66 percent of Jews surveyed approve of Bushs handling of his job, compared to 81 percent of Protestants and 82 percent of Catholics.
The poll, Wittman said, included one hopeful sign for the GOP: the surprisingly high number of Jews who identify themselves as independents.
Jews have been overwhelmingly Democratic in identification over the years, he said. Any weakening of that identification has to be good for the Republicans. If you pushed most of these independents, they would still probably vote Democratic. Still, its a departure from the New Deal generation.
A top political scientist agreed.
The history of American party identification is that when groups are shifting from one party to another, they dont do it in one fell swoop, said Benjamin Ginsberg, a professor at Johns Hopkins University. Generally they do it through third party or independent phases.
Republican politicians who have mastered the argot of the Jewish community and who have unimpeachable pro-Israel credentials may be able to tap that independent bloc, he said, citing the example of former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.
Still, any change is likely to be slow and incremental. There wont be any stampedes, Ginsberg said.
Jewish Democrats were crowing about the survey.
In a statement, the National Jewish Democratic Council said the Gallup analysis is particularly significant because of a recent Hillel survey of Jewish college freshmen showing that only 9.5 percent of those surveyed consider themselves conservative or far right.
Viewed together, these studies take on the myths that American Jewish adults are moving towards the right, and that Jewish college students are doing likewise, said NJDC director Ira Forman.
Matthew Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition, downplayed the significance of the Gallup numbers.
We never expected a realignment of [voter] registration, he said. What is clear over the last few election cycles is a realignment of votes. There is undisputable evidence that more and more Jews are voting for Republican candidates across the board.
Brooks also said that other surveys show that up to 48 percent of Jews would consider voting for Bush in 2004, which we see as the most encouraging aspect.