VTMBH Article: Body
A new war in the Middle East could cripple some Caribbean economies, particularly those dependent on migrant earning and those with a low tolerance for spikes in oil prices, says the Florida-based Caribbean-American Political Action Committee (CAPAC), a think tank group of migrant academics.
Dr. Marcia Magnus, president CAPAC and a professor at Florida International University, told the Weekly Gleaner that cash remittances from Jamaican and other West Indian immigrants, which help buffer ailing economies, may dry up if the United States or a coalition force were to wage war on Iraq.
But the potential loss of U.S.$600 million to Jamaica and another U.S.$18 billion in annual immigrant money as a result of a war-strained U.S. economy is not Magnus only concern.
A much greater problem than the fall off in immigrants sending money to their home territories when the war breaks out is the likely effect of an increase in oil prices to the poor Caribbean economies, she explained.
The potential effects of war on developing economies was also expressed by Ambassador Sakthip Krairiksh of Thailand.
He warned the UN Security Council last week that if the tensions between the United States and Iraq continued, it would lead to dire consequences to the global economy at a time when many economies are struggling to recover from financial crises.
The reliance of many economies on the Middle East for trade, investment and supply of natural resourcesincluding oilmeans that any instability or outbreak of military action in the region could have severe adverse impacts on the livelihood and well being of people all over the world, he added.
The economic recovery process pursued by developing countries may be stalled or even reversed. This is a no-win situation for everyone, he warned.
However, Al Francis, a veteran economist at the University of the West Indies in Mona, Jamaica in reacting to a UN report on immigration policies employed by developed countries, told a local newspaper over the weekend that remittances have not helped the Jamaican economy.
He had explained that while remittances wired to poor, and even the middle class families in the Caribbean area resolve some basic consumption needs, the real performance of these economies are not necessarily affected.
Jamaica, for example, has not experienced any major impact although an average of $600 million flows in here annually. Most of the money is immediately used to meet basic needs and hardly any is left for savings, he said.
But a study released a few days ago by the UN population division indicated that immigrants to the developed world helped boost their home countries economies of their home countries by adding as much as 10 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Jamaica, El Salvador, Eritrea, Nicaragua and Yemen during 2000.
During the same period, the World Bank estimated Egypts total remittances from migrant workers at $3.75 billion, while Indian workers sent home about $11.6 billion in the same year.
Ambassador V.K. Nambiar of India also lamented to the UN Security Council that his country had a vital interest and high stakes in peace and prosperity of the Gulf region.
Our relations with this region have developed as a result of centuries of deep historical, cultural, religious and economic contacts, he said.
Currently, about four million Indians live in the Gulf region. In Iraq itself, he said, India has substantial trade interests and projects that were affected after the 1991 Gulf War. Developments in the region this affect India, he added.
Salah al-Muktha, Iraqs Ambassador to India, said last week that more than 500 companies are engaged in Indo-Iraq trade, which is worth over one billion dollars annually, while projects worth more than $5.5 billion are in the pipeline.
Indias primary import is oil, which has averaged about $25-30 per barrel this year. But any major increase in its price is expected to hurt developing nations.
Sheik Zaki al-Yemeni, a former head of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), was quoted as saying last week that a new war in the Middle East could jack up oil prices to a staggering $100 per barrel.
Immediately after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, and the subsequent Gulf War in early 1991, millions of migrant workers, mostly housemaids and unskilled workers, lost their jobs almost overnight in the United States and were forced to return home.
The returning migrants not only ended all inward remittances but also created new problems of unemployment in their own countries.
This time around, however, the Caribbean could help thwart a war between the United States and Iraq since the large Caribbean migrant population in the United States may have political clout, says Professor Magnus.
But the Caribbean political administrations must become proactive in order to preserve the U.S.$18 billion, estimated as the total amount of cash immigrants in the United States send home to their relatives in the Caribbean and Latin America annually, Magnus insisted.
The legal Caribbean-Americans constitute a significant block of voters in U.S. elections. So, if this group of Americans were to be organized and made aware of their political leverage and their obligation to express an interest in the Caribbean area, pressure could be brought to bear on Bush, said Magnus.
If we had used this approach when our banana industry was in trouble, the results may have been different, she concluded.
Dr. Marcia Magnus, president CAPAC and a professor at Florida International University, told the Weekly Gleaner that cash remittances from Jamaican and other West Indian immigrants, which help buffer ailing economies, may dry up if the United States or a coalition force were to wage war on Iraq.
But the potential loss of U.S.$600 million to Jamaica and another U.S.$18 billion in annual immigrant money as a result of a war-strained U.S. economy is not Magnus only concern.
A much greater problem than the fall off in immigrants sending money to their home territories when the war breaks out is the likely effect of an increase in oil prices to the poor Caribbean economies, she explained.
The potential effects of war on developing economies was also expressed by Ambassador Sakthip Krairiksh of Thailand.
He warned the UN Security Council last week that if the tensions between the United States and Iraq continued, it would lead to dire consequences to the global economy at a time when many economies are struggling to recover from financial crises.
The reliance of many economies on the Middle East for trade, investment and supply of natural resourcesincluding oilmeans that any instability or outbreak of military action in the region could have severe adverse impacts on the livelihood and well being of people all over the world, he added.
The economic recovery process pursued by developing countries may be stalled or even reversed. This is a no-win situation for everyone, he warned.
However, Al Francis, a veteran economist at the University of the West Indies in Mona, Jamaica in reacting to a UN report on immigration policies employed by developed countries, told a local newspaper over the weekend that remittances have not helped the Jamaican economy.
He had explained that while remittances wired to poor, and even the middle class families in the Caribbean area resolve some basic consumption needs, the real performance of these economies are not necessarily affected.
Jamaica, for example, has not experienced any major impact although an average of $600 million flows in here annually. Most of the money is immediately used to meet basic needs and hardly any is left for savings, he said.
But a study released a few days ago by the UN population division indicated that immigrants to the developed world helped boost their home countries economies of their home countries by adding as much as 10 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Jamaica, El Salvador, Eritrea, Nicaragua and Yemen during 2000.
During the same period, the World Bank estimated Egypts total remittances from migrant workers at $3.75 billion, while Indian workers sent home about $11.6 billion in the same year.
Ambassador V.K. Nambiar of India also lamented to the UN Security Council that his country had a vital interest and high stakes in peace and prosperity of the Gulf region.
Our relations with this region have developed as a result of centuries of deep historical, cultural, religious and economic contacts, he said.
Currently, about four million Indians live in the Gulf region. In Iraq itself, he said, India has substantial trade interests and projects that were affected after the 1991 Gulf War. Developments in the region this affect India, he added.
Salah al-Muktha, Iraqs Ambassador to India, said last week that more than 500 companies are engaged in Indo-Iraq trade, which is worth over one billion dollars annually, while projects worth more than $5.5 billion are in the pipeline.
Indias primary import is oil, which has averaged about $25-30 per barrel this year. But any major increase in its price is expected to hurt developing nations.
Sheik Zaki al-Yemeni, a former head of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), was quoted as saying last week that a new war in the Middle East could jack up oil prices to a staggering $100 per barrel.
Immediately after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, and the subsequent Gulf War in early 1991, millions of migrant workers, mostly housemaids and unskilled workers, lost their jobs almost overnight in the United States and were forced to return home.
The returning migrants not only ended all inward remittances but also created new problems of unemployment in their own countries.
This time around, however, the Caribbean could help thwart a war between the United States and Iraq since the large Caribbean migrant population in the United States may have political clout, says Professor Magnus.
But the Caribbean political administrations must become proactive in order to preserve the U.S.$18 billion, estimated as the total amount of cash immigrants in the United States send home to their relatives in the Caribbean and Latin America annually, Magnus insisted.
The legal Caribbean-Americans constitute a significant block of voters in U.S. elections. So, if this group of Americans were to be organized and made aware of their political leverage and their obligation to express an interest in the Caribbean area, pressure could be brought to bear on Bush, said Magnus.
If we had used this approach when our banana industry was in trouble, the results may have been different, she concluded.